苹果公司在2019年售出了总量价值约60亿美元的AirPods
Apple Sold an Estimated $6 Billion Worth of AirPods in 2019

Apple Sold an Estimated $6 Billion Worth of AirPods in 2019

苹果公司在2019年售出了总量价值约60亿美元的AirPods

可穿戴产品很容易成为苹果最令人兴奋的市场机会(NASDAQ:AAPL),首席执行官蒂姆库克说,该细分市场正在享受“爆炸式增长”。根据Cook对财富500的收入衡量的愚蠢习惯,苹果的可穿戴产品收入现在约为189亿美元。根据市场研究机构IDC最近的估计,第三季度全球可穿戴设备市场的整体销量几乎翻了一番。

随着2019年的结束,苹果可能全年销售了价值60亿美元的AirPods。到2020年,这一数字可能会翻一番。

图片来源:苹果。

达到“创记录的最高点”

伯恩斯坦公司(Bernstein)分析师托尼•萨克纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi)最近在给投资者的研究报告中预测,苹果2019年AirPods的收入为60亿美元。这位分析师认为,AirPods的销量到2020年可能会增加一倍以上,达到8500万台,明年的销售额将达到150亿美元。这相当于苹果全年预期总收入的3.5%左右。

这家科技巨头在3月份发布了第二代AirPods, 10月份又发布了售价249美元的高端AirPods Pro。苹果还推出了Beats品牌的其他可听产品。

然而,AirPods令人难以置信的受欢迎程度和迅猛增长的另一面是,销售可能很快就会达到峰值。Sacconaghi表示:“一旦你到达曲线顶端,增长往往会大幅放缓,而AirPods如今的增长速度如此之快,以至于它们有可能在创纪录的时间内达到最高点。”

在分析师看来,还有一部分iPhone用户购买了二手手机,他们可能不愿意花159美元购买一对AirPods。苹果公司今年早些时候表示,全球iPhone的安装基数已经达到9亿;Sacconaghi认为,这些仍在使用的iphone中,约有2.5亿部是在二级市场上购买的,这可能会限制AirPods的上涨空间。

这位分析师写道:“鉴于AirPods的用户曲线异常陡峭,iPhone的安装基数迅速饱和,我们预计到2021年或2021年,AirPods的收入增长将大幅减速,增长率可能降至个位数甚至更低。

第二项意见

与伯恩斯坦的估计相比,Loup Ventures的苹果资深分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)最近估计,AirPods在2019年将产生85亿美元的收入,其基于的是5990万的销量和142美元的平均售价。(蒙斯特的ASP估计低于AirPods 159美元的零售价,因为它向零售商和分销商提供了批发折扣。)蒙斯特的模型要求苹果公司在2020年以159美元的价格卖出9580万台AirPods,相当于152亿美元的收入。

伯恩斯坦重申了对苹果股票的市场表现评级,并将其股价目标定为250美元,低于当前水平。

Wearables are easily among the most exciting market opportunities for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), with CEO Tim Cook sayingthe segment is enjoying "explosive growth." Based on Cook's silly habit of measuring revenue relative to the Fortune 500, Apple's wearables revenue is now approximately $18.9 billion. The broader wearables market saw global unit volumes nearly double in the third quarter, according to recent estimates from market researcher IDC.

With 2019 winding down, Apple may have sold $6 billion worth of AirPods throughout the year. That could more than double in 2020.

Image source: Apple.

Reaching "the top in record time"

In a recent researchnoteto investors, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi pegged Apple's 2019 AirPods revenue at $6 billion. The analyst believes that AirPods units could more than double to 85 million in 2020, bringing in $15 billion in sales next year. That would represent around 3.5% of Apple's total expected revenue for the year.

The tech giant released second-generation AirPods in March, followed by higher-end $249 AirPods Pro in October. Apple has also launched other hearables under its Beats brand.

However, the flip side of AirPods' incredible popularity and blistering growth is that sales could potentially peak soon. "Growth tends to slow down a lot once you reach the top of the curve, and AirPods are simply growing so fast today that they risk reaching the top in record time," according to Sacconaghi.

There's also a subset of iPhone owners that bought used handsets and may not be willing to spend $159 on a pair of AirPods, in the analyst's view. Apple said earlier this year that the global iPhone installed base had reached 900 million; Sacconaghi believes around 250 million of those iPhones still in use were bought in the secondary market, which could potentially limit AirPods' upside.

"Given AirPods' extraordinarily steep adoption curve and rapid saturation of the iPhone installed base, we see a dramatic deceleration in AirPods revenue growth by 2021 or 22, to single digit growth rates or possibly lower," the analyst wrote.

A second opinion

Contrast Bernstein's estimates with longtime Apple analyst Gene Munster's at Loup Ventures, who recently estimated that AirPods would generate$8.5 billion in revenue in 2019, based on unit volumes of 59.9 million and an average selling price (ASP) of $142. (Munster's ASP estimate is lower than the $159 retail price of AirPods due to wholesale discounts to retailers and distributors.) Munster's model calls for Apple to sell 95.8 million AirPods in 2020 at an ASP of $159, good for $15.2 billion in revenue.

Bernstein reiteratedits market perform rating on Apple shares alongside a price target of $250, which is below current levels.

Wearables are easily among the most exciting market opportunities for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), with CEO Tim Cook sayingthe segment is enjoying "explosive growth." Based on Cook's silly habit of measuring revenue relative to the Fortune 500, Apple's wearables revenue is now approximately $18.9 billion. The broader wearables market saw global unit volumes nearly double in the third quarter, according to recent estimates from market researcher IDC.

可穿戴产品很容易成为苹果最令人兴奋的市场机会(NASDAQ:AAPL),首席执行官蒂姆库克说,该细分市场正在享受“爆炸式增长”。根据Cook对财富500的收入衡量的愚蠢习惯,苹果的可穿戴产品收入现在约为189亿美元。根据市场研究机构IDC最近的估计,第三季度全球可穿戴设备市场的整体销量几乎翻了一番。

With 2019 winding down, Apple may have sold $6 billion worth of AirPods throughout the year. That could more than double in 2020.

随着2019年的结束,苹果可能全年销售了价值60亿美元的AirPods。到2020年,这一数字可能会翻一番。

Image source: Apple.

图片来源:苹果。

Reaching "the top in record time"

达到“创记录的最高点”

In a recent researchnoteto investors, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi pegged Apple's 2019 AirPods revenue at $6 billion. The analyst believes that AirPods units could more than double to 85 million in 2020, bringing in $15 billion in sales next year. That would represent around 3.5% of Apple's total expected revenue for the year.

伯恩斯坦公司(Bernstein)分析师托尼•萨克纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi)最近在给投资者的研究报告中预测,苹果2019年AirPods的收入为60亿美元。这位分析师认为,AirPods的销量到2020年可能会增加一倍以上,达到8500万台,明年的销售额将达到150亿美元。这相当于苹果全年预期总收入的3.5%左右。

The tech giant released second-generation AirPods in March, followed by higher-end $249 AirPods Pro in October. Apple has also launched other hearables under its Beats brand.

这家科技巨头在3月份发布了第二代AirPods, 10月份又发布了售价249美元的高端AirPods Pro。苹果还推出了Beats品牌的其他可听产品。

However, the flip side of AirPods' incredible popularity and blistering growth is that sales could potentially peak soon. "Growth tends to slow down a lot once you reach the top of the curve, and AirPods are simply growing so fast today that they risk reaching the top in record time," according to Sacconaghi.

然而,AirPods令人难以置信的受欢迎程度和迅猛增长的另一面是,销售可能很快就会达到峰值。Sacconaghi表示:“一旦你到达曲线顶端,增长往往会大幅放缓,而AirPods如今的增长速度如此之快,以至于它们有可能在创纪录的时间内达到最高点。”

There's also a subset of iPhone owners that bought used handsets and may not be willing to spend $159 on a pair of AirPods, in the analyst's view. Apple said earlier this year that the global iPhone installed base had reached 900 million; Sacconaghi believes around 250 million of those iPhones still in use were bought in the secondary market, which could potentially limit AirPods' upside.

在分析师看来,还有一部分iPhone用户购买了二手手机,他们可能不愿意花159美元购买一对AirPods。苹果公司今年早些时候表示,全球iPhone的安装基数已经达到9亿;Sacconaghi认为,这些仍在使用的iphone中,约有2.5亿部是在二级市场上购买的,这可能会限制AirPods的上涨空间。

"Given AirPods' extraordinarily steep adoption curve and rapid saturation of the iPhone installed base, we see a dramatic deceleration in AirPods revenue growth by 2021 or 22, to single digit growth rates or possibly lower," the analyst wrote.

这位分析师写道:“鉴于AirPods的用户曲线异常陡峭,iPhone的安装基数迅速饱和,我们预计到2021年或2021年,AirPods的收入增长将大幅减速,增长率可能降至个位数甚至更低。

A second opinion

第二项意见

Contrast Bernstein's estimates with longtime Apple analyst Gene Munster's at Loup Ventures, who recently estimated that AirPods would generate$8.5 billion in revenue in 2019, based on unit volumes of 59.9 million and an average selling price (ASP) of $142. (Munster's ASP estimate is lower than the $159 retail price of AirPods due to wholesale discounts to retailers and distributors.) Munster's model calls for Apple to sell 95.8 million AirPods in 2020 at an ASP of $159, good for $15.2 billion in revenue.

与伯恩斯坦的估计相比,Loup Ventures的苹果资深分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)最近估计,AirPods在2019年将产生85亿美元的收入,其基于的是5990万的销量和142美元的平均售价。(蒙斯特的ASP估计低于AirPods 159美元的零售价,因为它向零售商和分销商提供了批发折扣。)蒙斯特的模型要求苹果公司在2020年以159美元的价格卖出9580万台AirPods,相当于152亿美元的收入。

Bernstein reiteratedits market perform rating on Apple shares alongside a price target of $250, which is below current levels.

伯恩斯坦重申了对苹果股票的市场表现评级,并将其股价目标定为250美元,低于当前水平。