评论:低利率不一定意味着我们手头有更多现金
Commentary: Low interest rates don’t necessarily mean we keep more cash in hand

Commentary: Low interest rates don’t necessarily mean we keep more cash in hand

评论:低利率不一定意味着我们手头有更多现金

聪明投资者(Smart Investor)首席执行官戴维•库奥(David Kuo)表示,尽管现金可能具有吸引力和吸引力,但问题在于,保持现金存在成本。

客户从自动柜员机提取现金的存档照片。(文件夹照片:澳大利亚联邦警察/罗斯兰·拉赫曼)

新加坡:世界上到处都是现金。我们几乎凭直觉知道这一点,因为许多银行把我们储蓄账户的利率降低到几乎为零,因为它们不鼓励更多储蓄,以减少利息付款。

此外,对银行贷款的需求也有所减少,这意味着欠银行的利息也较低。

8月,新加坡的银行贷款降至6779亿新元,是2019年4月以来规模最小的银行贷款。

据McKinsey & Company称,在COVID - 19大流行病的最初几个月里,世界各国政府宣布了前所未有的10万亿美元现金注入。

评论:受日冕灾害影响的经济体的债务不断增加— —情况有多糟糕?

这是其应对2008年至2009年全球金融危机的三倍。

这些政府刺激计划包括担保、贷款、向公司和个人转移、减税和股本投资。

在许多情况下,政府发行的债务又是中央银行通过创造新的现金购买的。

采取的步骤

美联储(Fed)甚至表示,它致力于“竭尽所能”维持美国经济的运转。它计划通过将重点转向2%的平均通货膨胀目标和最大就业目标来做到这一点。

因此,也不应该缺少现金,也不应该缺少可用的信贷。

但现金到底是什么?现金也称为货币,是法定货币。它是我们支付货物和服务的媒介。

尽管信用卡、借记卡、支票和电子支付应用程序无处不在,但仍然需要现金来支撑这些其他流行的支付方法。

我们仍然需要现金来结清信用卡账单、偿还债务和进行资金转移,即使是在我们的移动电话上进行电子转账。

VISA信用卡可见2016年6月9日的图解。(照片:记者/ Maxim Zmeyev)

因此,问题不是我们是否需要现金,而是我们应该持有多少东西。

尽管现金可能具有诱惑力和吸引力,但问题在于保持现金是有成本的。

评论:贷款鲨鱼— —在这一天和这个年龄,谁还在借债?

好的方面是,持有现金的主要好处是我们能够完全控制现金。我们可以绝对准确地知道,我们在任何时候都有多少。此外,只要我们想要宽松的流动性,我们就可以立即获得资金。

现金之日

不过,有一点值得注意。在全球金融危机之后,如果一家银行或金融公司倒闭,我们新加坡的经常账户和储蓄账户由存款保险计划提供最高达75 000新元的保险。它是对小储户的一层保护。

但这对银行账户中收入远超过这一数额的任何人都没有帮助。合理地说,有一个更重要的保护层次。

在新加坡,新加坡货币管理局制定了严格的规则,以确保银行和金融公司管理良好、资本充足并有足够的流动性来满足任何不可预见的需求。

评论:那些有能力支付得起的人必须花费更多资金来拯救经济。

但另一个与消费者持有现金通货膨胀有关的风险是衡量货币购买力的尺度。作为现金持有的每一美元以后都可能价值较低,因为其购买力正受到价格上涨的侵蚀。

即使通货膨胀率为2 % , 100美元今天也只能在一年内购买价值98美元的货物和服务。我们持有现金的时间越长,情况就越糟糕。10年后,按今天的货币计算,它的价值只有81美元。二十年后,它将失去近三分之一的价值。

机会费用

如果我们把储蓄留作现金,就失去了使我们的钱产生更好回报的机会。相反,我们可以把我们的钱固定起来,至少用我们的钱赚取一些利息。

例如,按照风险的上升顺序,我们可以将资金存入固定存款账户、存款凭证或投资级债券。赚取的利息也许不能完全保护我们的货币不受通货膨胀的影响,但它可以在某种程度上减轻价格上涨的影响。

新加坡货币管理局在新加坡的建筑。(照片:菲律宾武装部队/罗斯兰·拉赫曼)

例如,新加坡储蓄债券每年为1至10年的投资支付0.23%至1.79%的费用。

这高于目前0 %的通货膨胀率,如果通货膨胀保持在目前的低水平,这将保持我们储蓄的购买力。

但是,如果通货膨胀上升到5%左右,那不是八年前消费者价格还在上升的速度。

评论:黄金可能已经失去了一些光泽,但还没有取消。

对于规避风险的投资者来说,这些接近现金的投资可能很有吸引力。就风险而言,固定存款和投资级债券是四个主要资产类别中风险最小的一些。

在风险阶梯上更上一层的是财产和股票。它们被认为风险更大,因为我们可能并不总是收回我们的初始投资。但投资者的回报可能高于现金或债券所能带来的回报。

安全吗?

房价往会随着时间的推移而上涨,但并不总是直线上涨。

根据城市再发展管理局(URA)的数据,新加坡以URA房地产指数衡量的私人住宅价格从1975年的8.9上升到2020年的152.1 。

这相当于大院每年增加7 % 。投资于房地产的好处是杠杆。银行更有可能借钱购买房产,因为贷款是以房产本身为担保的。

近年来,新加坡政府采取了冷却措施,以抑制对房产的需求(卷宗照片: TODAY)

因此,如果我们投资于应该排除我们所居住的房屋的财产,它可以为我们提供被动的收入。但缺点包括交易成本高、经常维修和房产空置时的租期无效。

评论:为什么现在购买那套新房和汽车的贷款更便宜了。

财产也缺乏流动性。如果我们需要现金,就不容易出售财产。不动产投资信托或不动产信托是实物财产的一种替代办法,它们是以财产为重点的分割支付份额。

一个基督教世界

除了经济转型国家外,几乎无穷无尽地选择股票,以保护我们免受通货膨胀的危险。

然而,尽管存在着这种威胁,一些投资者仍然更喜欢现金的安慰。DBS集团控股公司(DBS Group Holdings)的一项调查显示,最近几个月,其富有客户持有的现金增加到了其投资组合的大约40% ,高于大流行病爆发前的30% 。

彭博(Bloomberg)称,领先的私募股权公司持有约1.6万亿美元的现金。

评论:低利率可能会吸引更多超出其能力的贷款。

显然,一些人认为,投资于金融危机,特别是以流行病为基础的金融危机,是不值得冒险的。毕竟,任何人都不可能知道复苏的时间表或形式。

在这种情况下,人们更有可能避免损失,而不仅是更有可能减少损失的规避风险。

但是,同样重要的是要认识到,随着时间的推移,市场总是在复苏。如果你不能等待复苏,那么现金可能是个好选择。

至于现金是垃圾还是国王,这取决于我们是否相信我们将从COVID - 19中恢复过来。

你该怎么做呢?

但这还不能很好地回答我们应该持有多少现金的问题。值得庆幸的是,有一条经验法则可能有所帮助。它被称为" 100规则" 。它不是十全十美的,但仍然可以成为有用的指南。

它指出,在我们的投资组合中,股票的比例应等于100减去我们的年龄。

因此, 30岁的人只应该持有30%的现金,其余的则可以是股票或财产。70岁的人可以考虑拥有70%的现金,只有30%的股票。

规则背后的想法很简单:年轻人有更长的时间从股市的挫折中恢复过来。老年人没有同样的奢侈时间。

评论:美元只会更快、更困难地贬值。

经验法则并不是指令性的。相反,它背后的塑造生活的情绪是明确的。

随着时间的推移,我们应考虑将更多的投资组合转移到风险较小的投资中,即使这可能意味着总体回报较低。

但是,随着平均寿命的延长,由于饮食的改善和医疗保健的改善,我们可能会有更多的时间从任何市场下滑中恢复过来,这可能意味着我们对现金的需求不会像“一百人规则”所说的那样大。

至于实际应该有多少美元和多少美分,这是完全不同的讨论。

David Kuo是The Smart Investor的联合创始人,曾任Motley Fool Singapore的首席执行官。

资料来源: CNA / html 。

As enticing and appealing as cash might be, the problem is that there is a cost associated with keeping it, says The Smart Investor CEO David Kuo.

SINGAPORE: The world is awash with cash. We know this, almost intuitively, because many banks have cut interest rates on our saving accounts to almost zero as they discourage more savings to reduce the amount of interest payments they accrue

What's more, demand for bank loans have been subdued, meaning interest fees owed to banks are lower too.

In Singapore, bank loans declined to S$677.9 billion in August, which was the smallest bank lending since April 2019.

According to McKinsey & Company, governments around the world announced an unprecedented cash injection of US$10 trillion in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

READ: Commentary: Rising debt in coronavirus-stricken economies - just how bad is it?

That was three times more than their response to the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis.

These government stimulus packages included guarantees, loans, transfers to both companies and individuals, tax deferrals, and equity investments.

In many cases, governments have issued debt that in turn has been bought by central banks through the creation of fresh cash.

WHATEVER IT TAKES

The Federal Reserve has even gone so far as to say that it is committed to doing "whatever it takes" to keep the US economy afloat. It plans to do this by shifting its emphasis to an average inflation target of 2 per cent and a goal of maximum employment.

So, there should be no shortage of cash and no lack of available credit, either.

But what exactly is cash? Cash, also known as money, is legal tender. It is the medium by which we pay for our goods and services.

Even with the ubiquitous use of credit cards, debit cards, cheques, and electronic payment apps, cash is still needed to underpin these other popular payment methods.

We still need cash to settle our credit-card bills, to pay off our debts, and to perform transfer of funds, even if it is done electronically on our mobile phones.

So, the question is not whether we need cash but rather how much of the stuff should we hold.

As enticing and appealing as cash might be, the problem is that there is a cost associated with keeping it.

READ: Commentary: Loan sharks - who's still borrowing from them in this day and age?

On the plus side, the main benefit of holding cash is that we can have total control over it. We can know, with absolute accuracy, how much of it that we have at any moment in time. What's more, we can have immediate access to it whenever we want easy liquidity.

THE HIDDEN DANGERS OF CASH

There is one caveat to that, though. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, our Singapore current and savings accounts are insured by the Deposit Insurance Scheme of up to only S$75,000, if a bank or finance company should collapse. It is a layer of protection for small depositors.

But it doesn't help anyone who has significantly more than that in their bank account. Reassuringly, there is a more important layer of protection.

In Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has strict rules in place to ensure that banks and finance companies are well-managed, well-capitalised and have enough liquidity to meet any unforeseen needs.

READ: Commentary: Those who can afford it must spend more to save the economy

But there is another risk associated with consumers holding cash - inflation, which is a measure of the purchasing power of money. Every dollar that is held as cash could be worth less later because its buying power is being eroded by rising prices.

Even with a modest rate of inflation of 2 per cent, $100 today would only buy $98 worth of goods and services in a year's time. It gets worse the longer we hold onto the cash. After 10 years, it would only be worth $81 in today's money. After two decades, it will have lost nearly a third of its value.

OPPORTUNITY COST

There is also the missed opportunity of generating a better return on our money if we simply leave our savings as cash. We could instead lock our money away for a fixed period to, at least, earn some interest on our money.

For instance, in ascending order of risk, we could put our money into fixed-deposit accounts, certificates of deposits or investment-grade bonds. The interest earned might not entirely protect our money from inflation, but it could go a little way to lessen the impact of rising prices.

For instance, Singapore Savings Bonds pay between 0.23 per cent per annum and 1.79 per cent per annum for investments between one and 10 years.

That is higher than the current inflation rate of 0 per cent, which would preserve the buying power of our savings if inflation should remain at the current muted level.

But not if inflation should rise to around 5 per cent, which was the rate at which consumer prices were rising at just eight years ago.

READ: Commentary: Gold may have lost some of its shine but don't write it off just yet

For risk-averse investors, those near-cash investments can be enticing. In terms of risk, fixed deposits and investment-grade bonds are some of the least risky of the four main asset classes.

Further up the risk ladder are property and shares. They are deemed riskier because we might not always recoup our initial investments. But the pay-off for the investor is the possibility of higher returns than either cash or bonds can deliver.

SAFE HOUSES?

Property prices tend to rise over time, though always not in a straight line.

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), private home prices in Singapore as measured by the URA Property Index has risen from a reading of 8.9 in 1975 to 152.1 in 2020.

That equates to a compound annual increase of 7 per cent. The benefit of investing in property is leverage. Banks are more likely to lend money to buy a property because the loan is secured against the property itself.

Consequently, if we invest in property, which should exclude the houses that we live in, it could provide us with passive income. But the disadvantages include high transaction costs, regular maintenance, and void rental periods when the property is vacant.

READ: Commentary: Why that loan to buy that new house and car is cheaper now

Property is also illiquid. It is not easy to sell a property if we need cash quickly. An alternative to physical property are Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITs, which are dividend-paying shares that are focussed on property.

A WORLD OF CHOICES

Apart from REITs, there is an almost endless choice of shares to choose from that could protect us from the dangers of inflation.

But despite the threat, some investors still prefer the comfort of cash. According to a survey by DBS Group Holdings, its wealthy clients have increased cash holdings to about 40 percent of their portfolios in recent months, which is up from 30 percent before the pandemic.

According to Bloomberg, leading private equity companies are sitting on around US$1.6 trillion in cash.

READ: Commentary: Low interest rates could tempt more to borrow beyond their means

Clearly, some people believe that investing in a financial crisis, especially one that is underpinned by a pandemic, is not worth the risk. After all, no one can possibly know the timeline or the shape of a recovery.

In times like these, people are more likely to be loss-averse rather than just simply risk-averse that is more likely to cut their losses.

But it is also important to appreciate that markets have always recovered over time. If you can't wait for a recovery, then cash might be a good option.

As to whether cash is trash or king, it hinges on whether we believe that we will recover from COVID-19.

HOW MUCH CASH?

But that still doesn't quite answer the question of how much cash we should hold. Thankfully, there is a rule of thumb that might help. It's called "The rule of 100". It's not perfect, but it can still be a useful guide.

It states that the proportion of equities in our portfolios should be equal to 100 minus our age.

So, a 30-year-old should only hold 30 per cent cash, whilst the rest could be in the stocks or property. Someone who is 70 years of age could consider having 70 per cent cash and only 30 per cent in equities.

The idea behind the rule is simple: Younger people have a longer time horizon to recover from a setback in the stock market. Older folks don't have that same luxury of time.

READ: Commentary: The US dollar will only fall faster and harder

The rule of thumb is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, the life-styling sentiment behind it is clear.

As we grow older, we should think about moving more of our portfolios into less risky investments, even if it could mean lower overall returns.

But as average lifespans have increased, thanks to better diets and improved healthcare, we might have more time to recover from any market dips, which could mean we don't quite need as much cash as the "rule of a hundred" would suggest.

As to how much in actual dollars and cents that should be, that is an entirely different discussion altogether.

David Kuo is the co-founder of The Smart Investor and previously the CEO of the Motley Fool Singapore.

As enticing and appealing as cash might be, the problem is that there is a cost associated with keeping it, says The Smart Investor CEO David Kuo.

聪明投资者(Smart Investor)首席执行官戴维•库奥(David Kuo)表示,尽管现金可能具有吸引力和吸引力,但问题在于,保持现金存在成本。

File photo of a customer withdrawing cash from an automated teller machine. (File photo: AFP/Roslan Rahman)

客户从自动柜员机提取现金的存档照片。(文件夹照片:澳大利亚联邦警察/罗斯兰·拉赫曼)

SINGAPORE: The world is awash with cash. We know this, almost intuitively, because many banks have cut interest rates on our saving accounts to almost zero as they discourage more savings to reduce the amount of interest payments they accrue

新加坡:世界上到处都是现金。我们几乎凭直觉知道这一点,因为许多银行把我们储蓄账户的利率降低到几乎为零,因为它们不鼓励更多储蓄,以减少利息付款。

What's more, demand for bank loans have been subdued, meaning interest fees owed to banks are lower too.

此外,对银行贷款的需求也有所减少,这意味着欠银行的利息也较低。

In Singapore, bank loans declined to S$677.9 billion in August, which was the smallest bank lending since April 2019.

8月,新加坡的银行贷款降至6779亿新元,是2019年4月以来规模最小的银行贷款。

According to McKinsey & Company, governments around the world announced an unprecedented cash injection of US$10 trillion in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

据McKinsey & Company称,在COVID - 19大流行病的最初几个月里,世界各国政府宣布了前所未有的10万亿美元现金注入。

READ: Commentary: Rising debt in coronavirus-stricken economies - just how bad is it?

评论:受日冕灾害影响的经济体的债务不断增加— —情况有多糟糕?

That was three times more than their response to the 2008 to 2009 global financial crisis.

这是其应对2008年至2009年全球金融危机的三倍。

These government stimulus packages included guarantees, loans, transfers to both companies and individuals, tax deferrals, and equity investments.

这些政府刺激计划包括担保、贷款、向公司和个人转移、减税和股本投资。

In many cases, governments have issued debt that in turn has been bought by central banks through the creation of fresh cash.

在许多情况下,政府发行的债务又是中央银行通过创造新的现金购买的。

WHATEVER IT TAKES

采取的步骤

The Federal Reserve has even gone so far as to say that it is committed to doing "whatever it takes" to keep the US economy afloat. It plans to do this by shifting its emphasis to an average inflation target of 2 per cent and a goal of maximum employment.

美联储(Fed)甚至表示,它致力于“竭尽所能”维持美国经济的运转。它计划通过将重点转向2%的平均通货膨胀目标和最大就业目标来做到这一点。

So, there should be no shortage of cash and no lack of available credit, either.

因此,也不应该缺少现金,也不应该缺少可用的信贷。

But what exactly is cash? Cash, also known as money, is legal tender. It is the medium by which we pay for our goods and services.

但现金到底是什么?现金也称为货币,是法定货币。它是我们支付货物和服务的媒介。

Even with the ubiquitous use of credit cards, debit cards, cheques, and electronic payment apps, cash is still needed to underpin these other popular payment methods.

尽管信用卡、借记卡、支票和电子支付应用程序无处不在,但仍然需要现金来支撑这些其他流行的支付方法。

We still need cash to settle our credit-card bills, to pay off our debts, and to perform transfer of funds, even if it is done electronically on our mobile phones.

我们仍然需要现金来结清信用卡账单、偿还债务和进行资金转移,即使是在我们的移动电话上进行电子转账。

VISA credit cards are seen in this picture illustration taken Jun 9, 2016. (Photo: REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev)

VISA信用卡可见2016年6月9日的图解。(照片:记者/ Maxim Zmeyev)

So, the question is not whether we need cash but rather how much of the stuff should we hold.

因此,问题不是我们是否需要现金,而是我们应该持有多少东西。

As enticing and appealing as cash might be, the problem is that there is a cost associated with keeping it.

尽管现金可能具有诱惑力和吸引力,但问题在于保持现金是有成本的。

READ: Commentary: Loan sharks - who's still borrowing from them in this day and age?

评论:贷款鲨鱼— —在这一天和这个年龄,谁还在借债?

On the plus side, the main benefit of holding cash is that we can have total control over it. We can know, with absolute accuracy, how much of it that we have at any moment in time. What's more, we can have immediate access to it whenever we want easy liquidity.

好的方面是,持有现金的主要好处是我们能够完全控制现金。我们可以绝对准确地知道,我们在任何时候都有多少。此外,只要我们想要宽松的流动性,我们就可以立即获得资金。

THE HIDDEN DANGERS OF CASH

现金之日

There is one caveat to that, though. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, our Singapore current and savings accounts are insured by the Deposit Insurance Scheme of up to only S$75,000, if a bank or finance company should collapse. It is a layer of protection for small depositors.

不过,有一点值得注意。在全球金融危机之后,如果一家银行或金融公司倒闭,我们新加坡的经常账户和储蓄账户由存款保险计划提供最高达75 000新元的保险。它是对小储户的一层保护。

But it doesn't help anyone who has significantly more than that in their bank account. Reassuringly, there is a more important layer of protection.

但这对银行账户中收入远超过这一数额的任何人都没有帮助。合理地说,有一个更重要的保护层次。

In Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has strict rules in place to ensure that banks and finance companies are well-managed, well-capitalised and have enough liquidity to meet any unforeseen needs.

在新加坡,新加坡货币管理局制定了严格的规则,以确保银行和金融公司管理良好、资本充足并有足够的流动性来满足任何不可预见的需求。

READ: Commentary: Those who can afford it must spend more to save the economy

评论:那些有能力支付得起的人必须花费更多资金来拯救经济。

But there is another risk associated with consumers holding cash - inflation, which is a measure of the purchasing power of money. Every dollar that is held as cash could be worth less later because its buying power is being eroded by rising prices.

但另一个与消费者持有现金通货膨胀有关的风险是衡量货币购买力的尺度。作为现金持有的每一美元以后都可能价值较低,因为其购买力正受到价格上涨的侵蚀。

Even with a modest rate of inflation of 2 per cent, $100 today would only buy $98 worth of goods and services in a year's time. It gets worse the longer we hold onto the cash. After 10 years, it would only be worth $81 in today's money. After two decades, it will have lost nearly a third of its value.

即使通货膨胀率为2 % , 100美元今天也只能在一年内购买价值98美元的货物和服务。我们持有现金的时间越长,情况就越糟糕。10年后,按今天的货币计算,它的价值只有81美元。二十年后,它将失去近三分之一的价值。

OPPORTUNITY COST

机会费用

There is also the missed opportunity of generating a better return on our money if we simply leave our savings as cash. We could instead lock our money away for a fixed period to, at least, earn some interest on our money.

如果我们把储蓄留作现金,就失去了使我们的钱产生更好回报的机会。相反,我们可以把我们的钱固定起来,至少用我们的钱赚取一些利息。

For instance, in ascending order of risk, we could put our money into fixed-deposit accounts, certificates of deposits or investment-grade bonds. The interest earned might not entirely protect our money from inflation, but it could go a little way to lessen the impact of rising prices.

例如,按照风险的上升顺序,我们可以将资金存入固定存款账户、存款凭证或投资级债券。赚取的利息也许不能完全保护我们的货币不受通货膨胀的影响,但它可以在某种程度上减轻价格上涨的影响。

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) building in Singapore. (Photo: AFP/Roslan Rahman)

新加坡货币管理局在新加坡的建筑。(照片:菲律宾武装部队/罗斯兰·拉赫曼)

For instance, Singapore Savings Bonds pay between 0.23 per cent per annum and 1.79 per cent per annum for investments between one and 10 years.

例如,新加坡储蓄债券每年为1至10年的投资支付0.23%至1.79%的费用。

That is higher than the current inflation rate of 0 per cent, which would preserve the buying power of our savings if inflation should remain at the current muted level.

这高于目前0 %的通货膨胀率,如果通货膨胀保持在目前的低水平,这将保持我们储蓄的购买力。

But not if inflation should rise to around 5 per cent, which was the rate at which consumer prices were rising at just eight years ago.

但是,如果通货膨胀上升到5%左右,那不是八年前消费者价格还在上升的速度。

READ: Commentary: Gold may have lost some of its shine but don't write it off just yet

评论:黄金可能已经失去了一些光泽,但还没有取消。

For risk-averse investors, those near-cash investments can be enticing. In terms of risk, fixed deposits and investment-grade bonds are some of the least risky of the four main asset classes.

对于规避风险的投资者来说,这些接近现金的投资可能很有吸引力。就风险而言,固定存款和投资级债券是四个主要资产类别中风险最小的一些。

Further up the risk ladder are property and shares. They are deemed riskier because we might not always recoup our initial investments. But the pay-off for the investor is the possibility of higher returns than either cash or bonds can deliver.

在风险阶梯上更上一层的是财产和股票。它们被认为风险更大,因为我们可能并不总是收回我们的初始投资。但投资者的回报可能高于现金或债券所能带来的回报。

SAFE HOUSES?

安全吗?

Property prices tend to rise over time, though always not in a straight line.

房价往会随着时间的推移而上涨,但并不总是直线上涨。

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), private home prices in Singapore as measured by the URA Property Index has risen from a reading of 8.9 in 1975 to 152.1 in 2020.

根据城市再发展管理局(URA)的数据,新加坡以URA房地产指数衡量的私人住宅价格从1975年的8.9上升到2020年的152.1 。

That equates to a compound annual increase of 7 per cent. The benefit of investing in property is leverage. Banks are more likely to lend money to buy a property because the loan is secured against the property itself.

这相当于大院每年增加7 % 。投资于房地产的好处是杠杆。银行更有可能借钱购买房产,因为贷款是以房产本身为担保的。

In recent years, Singapore Government introduced cooling measures to tame the demand for property (File photo: TODAY)

近年来,新加坡政府采取了冷却措施,以抑制对房产的需求(卷宗照片: TODAY)

Consequently, if we invest in property, which should exclude the houses that we live in, it could provide us with passive income. But the disadvantages include high transaction costs, regular maintenance, and void rental periods when the property is vacant.

因此,如果我们投资于应该排除我们所居住的房屋的财产,它可以为我们提供被动的收入。但缺点包括交易成本高、经常维修和房产空置时的租期无效。

READ: Commentary: Why that loan to buy that new house and car is cheaper now

评论:为什么现在购买那套新房和汽车的贷款更便宜了。

Property is also illiquid. It is not easy to sell a property if we need cash quickly. An alternative to physical property are Real Estate Investment Trusts or REITs, which are dividend-paying shares that are focussed on property.

财产也缺乏流动性。如果我们需要现金,就不容易出售财产。不动产投资信托或不动产信托是实物财产的一种替代办法,它们是以财产为重点的分割支付份额。

A WORLD OF CHOICES

一个基督教世界

Apart from REITs, there is an almost endless choice of shares to choose from that could protect us from the dangers of inflation.

除了经济转型国家外,几乎无穷无尽地选择股票,以保护我们免受通货膨胀的危险。

But despite the threat, some investors still prefer the comfort of cash. According to a survey by DBS Group Holdings, its wealthy clients have increased cash holdings to about 40 percent of their portfolios in recent months, which is up from 30 percent before the pandemic.

然而,尽管存在着这种威胁,一些投资者仍然更喜欢现金的安慰。DBS集团控股公司(DBS Group Holdings)的一项调查显示,最近几个月,其富有客户持有的现金增加到了其投资组合的大约40% ,高于大流行病爆发前的30% 。

According to Bloomberg, leading private equity companies are sitting on around US$1.6 trillion in cash.

彭博(Bloomberg)称,领先的私募股权公司持有约1.6万亿美元的现金。

READ: Commentary: Low interest rates could tempt more to borrow beyond their means

评论:低利率可能会吸引更多超出其能力的贷款。

Clearly, some people believe that investing in a financial crisis, especially one that is underpinned by a pandemic, is not worth the risk. After all, no one can possibly know the timeline or the shape of a recovery.

显然,一些人认为,投资于金融危机,特别是以流行病为基础的金融危机,是不值得冒险的。毕竟,任何人都不可能知道复苏的时间表或形式。

In times like these, people are more likely to be loss-averse rather than just simply risk-averse that is more likely to cut their losses.

在这种情况下,人们更有可能避免损失,而不仅是更有可能减少损失的规避风险。

But it is also important to appreciate that markets have always recovered over time. If you can't wait for a recovery, then cash might be a good option.

但是,同样重要的是要认识到,随着时间的推移,市场总是在复苏。如果你不能等待复苏,那么现金可能是个好选择。

As to whether cash is trash or king, it hinges on whether we believe that we will recover from COVID-19.

至于现金是垃圾还是国王,这取决于我们是否相信我们将从COVID - 19中恢复过来。

HOW MUCH CASH?

你该怎么做呢?

But that still doesn't quite answer the question of how much cash we should hold. Thankfully, there is a rule of thumb that might help. It's called "The rule of 100". It's not perfect, but it can still be a useful guide.

但这还不能很好地回答我们应该持有多少现金的问题。值得庆幸的是,有一条经验法则可能有所帮助。它被称为" 100规则" 。它不是十全十美的,但仍然可以成为有用的指南。

It states that the proportion of equities in our portfolios should be equal to 100 minus our age.

它指出,在我们的投资组合中,股票的比例应等于100减去我们的年龄。

So, a 30-year-old should only hold 30 per cent cash, whilst the rest could be in the stocks or property. Someone who is 70 years of age could consider having 70 per cent cash and only 30 per cent in equities.

因此, 30岁的人只应该持有30%的现金,其余的则可以是股票或财产。70岁的人可以考虑拥有70%的现金,只有30%的股票。

The idea behind the rule is simple: Younger people have a longer time horizon to recover from a setback in the stock market. Older folks don't have that same luxury of time.

规则背后的想法很简单:年轻人有更长的时间从股市的挫折中恢复过来。老年人没有同样的奢侈时间。

READ: Commentary: The US dollar will only fall faster and harder

评论:美元只会更快、更困难地贬值。

The rule of thumb is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, the life-styling sentiment behind it is clear.

经验法则并不是指令性的。相反,它背后的塑造生活的情绪是明确的。

As we grow older, we should think about moving more of our portfolios into less risky investments, even if it could mean lower overall returns.

随着时间的推移,我们应考虑将更多的投资组合转移到风险较小的投资中,即使这可能意味着总体回报较低。

But as average lifespans have increased, thanks to better diets and improved healthcare, we might have more time to recover from any market dips, which could mean we don't quite need as much cash as the "rule of a hundred" would suggest.

但是,随着平均寿命的延长,由于饮食的改善和医疗保健的改善,我们可能会有更多的时间从任何市场下滑中恢复过来,这可能意味着我们对现金的需求不会像“一百人规则”所说的那样大。

As to how much in actual dollars and cents that should be, that is an entirely different discussion altogether.

至于实际应该有多少美元和多少美分,这是完全不同的讨论。

David Kuo is the co-founder of The Smart Investor and previously the CEO of the Motley Fool Singapore.

David Kuo是The Smart Investor的联合创始人,曾任Motley Fool Singapore的首席执行官。

Source: CNA/ml

资料来源: CNA / html 。