在新的限制下,欧洲经济面临着更深层次的创伤
European Economy Faces Deeper Scars Amid New Restrictions

European Economy Faces Deeper Scars Amid New Restrictions

在新的限制下,欧洲经济面临着更深层次的创伤

(布隆伯格)— —刚受到冠状病毒限制打击的欧洲经济明年正面临缓慢复苏,导致公司倒闭和长期失业率上升。

欧盟委员会(European Commission)表示,欧元区经济2021年将增长4.2% ,低于之前的预期。中国今年看到的衰退幅度较小,不过这还不包括政府最近的封锁,这可能会让该地区一些最大的经济体重新陷入衰退。

欧盟经济专员保罗•根蒂洛尼(Paolo Gentiloni)在一份声明中表示: “由于Covid - 19案件的重新出现,欧洲的反弹被打断。 ”"在目前高度不确定的情况下,国家经济和财政策必须继续给予支持" 。

几个月来,各国政府一直拒绝实施新的封锁,但最近几周,它们被迫采取戏剧性行动,严格限制招待、零售和旅行。他们正在投入更多援助,帮助企业渡过混乱局面,但情况可能会变得更糟的风险仍然很大。

欧盟委员会警告称,这种大流行病可能会留下比预测“更深的伤痕” , “主要来自更多企业破产和对劳动力市场的歇斯底里效应” 。

经社会还警告说,成员国可根据其经济结构遵循"相当不同的增长轨迹" 。西班牙今年预计将收缩逾12% ,这是该货币集团遭受的最大冲击,也超过了此前的预期。相比之下,欧元区的平均水平为- 7.8% 。

委员会还看到联合王国出现两位数的收缩。这些预测首次假定,英国退欧后贸易协定的谈判不会产生任何结果。

欧元区的失业到目前为止一直受到政府措施(包括休假计划)的控制,但欧盟委员会表示,随着紧急援助的逐步取消,明年的失业率很可能会上升到9.4% 。

根据预测,由于前所未有的财政支持,欧元区政府债务今年将跃升至经济产出的100%以上,到2022年将保持在这一门槛之上。希腊的债务负担将上升到令人眼花缭乱的207% 。

在经济、企业和生计不断受到损害的情况下,欧洲中央银行正在制定一套新的刺激措施。即使在最近的飙升之前,预计2022年通胀将上升至1.3% ,远低于该机构略低于2%的目标。

欧洲央行将在12月的政策会议上做出自己的新预测,美国副总统路易斯•德金多斯(Luis de Guindos)周四表示,这些预测不太可能与欧盟委员会的预测有太大差异。他补充说,这一流行病的演变仍然是一个不确定因素。

与此同时,布鲁塞尔的外交官和议员们仍在争论对欧盟有史以来最严重的衰退做出历史性联合财政反应的细节。

欧洲央行已敦促官员毫不拖延地就该计划达成一致。它说,最近的封锁将需要新的财政支持,以维持需求,并帮助受影响商业部门关闭直接影响的人。

(第11段更新了欧洲中央银行的Guindos)

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(Bloomberg) -- Europe's economy, freshly battered by coronavirus restrictions, is facing a sluggish recovery next year that leaves it open to rising company failures and long-term unemployment.

The European Commission said the euro-area economy will grow 4.2% in 2021, less than previous anticipated. It sees a shallower recession this year, though that doesn't include the latest government lockdowns, which could push some of the region's biggest economies back into recession.

"Europe's rebound has been interrupted due to the resurgence in Covid-19 cases," Paolo Gentiloni, EU commissioner for the economy, said in a statement. "In the current context of very high uncertainty, national economic and fiscal policies must remain supportive."

Governments, which for months resisted imposing fresh lockdowns, were forced to take dramatic action in recent weeks and impose strict curbs on hospitality, retail and travel. They're pumping in more aid to help businesses get through the disruptions, but the risk that things might get even worse is still large.

The commission warned that the pandemic could leave "deeper scars" than forecast, "primarily from higher numbers of corporate bankruptcies and hysteresis effects on labor markets."

It also warned that member states could follow "rather different growth trajectories" depending on the structure of their economies. Spain's is forecast to contract by more than 12% this year, the biggest hit in the currency bloc and more than previously anticipated. That compares with a euro-area average of -7.8%.

The commission also sees a double digit contraction in the U.K. The forecasts for the first time assume that negotiations on a post-Brexit trade accord will yield no result.

Job losses in the euro area have so far been contained by government measures including furlough programs, but the commission said unemployment will probably rise to 9.4% next year as emergency support is phased out.

Due to unprecedented fiscal support, government debt in the currency bloc will jump to more than 100% of economic output this year and remain above this threshold through 2022, according to the forecast. Greece's debt load will rise to an eye-watering 207%.

Amid the ongoing damage to the economy, businesses and livelihoods, the European Central Bank is preparing a new set of stimulus measures. Even before the latest spike, inflation was forecast to rise to just 1.3% in 2022, far below the institution's goal of just under 2%.

The ECB will have its own new forecasts at its policy meeting in December, and Vice President Luis de Guindos said Thursday they're unlikely to differ much from the commission projections. He added that the evolution of the pandemic continues to be a source of uncertainty.

Diplomats and lawmakers in Brussels are meanwhile still squabbling over the details of a historic joint fiscal response to the EU's deepest slump on record.

The ECB has pushed officials to agree on the plan without any delay. It said that the latest lockdowns will require new fiscal support to sustain demand and help out those who are directly affected by the closures in the affected business sectors.

(Updates with ECB's Guindos in 11th paragraph.)

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(Bloomberg) -- Europe's economy, freshly battered by coronavirus restrictions, is facing a sluggish recovery next year that leaves it open to rising company failures and long-term unemployment.

(布隆伯格)— —刚受到冠状病毒限制打击的欧洲经济明年正面临缓慢复苏,导致公司倒闭和长期失业率上升。

The European Commission said the euro-area economy will grow 4.2% in 2021, less than previous anticipated. It sees a shallower recession this year, though that doesn't include the latest government lockdowns, which could push some of the region's biggest economies back into recession.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)表示,欧元区经济2021年将增长4.2% ,低于之前的预期。中国今年看到的衰退幅度较小,不过这还不包括政府最近的封锁,这可能会让该地区一些最大的经济体重新陷入衰退。

"Europe's rebound has been interrupted due to the resurgence in Covid-19 cases," Paolo Gentiloni, EU commissioner for the economy, said in a statement. "In the current context of very high uncertainty, national economic and fiscal policies must remain supportive."

欧盟经济专员保罗•根蒂洛尼(Paolo Gentiloni)在一份声明中表示: “由于Covid - 19案件的重新出现,欧洲的反弹被打断。 ”"在目前高度不确定的情况下,国家经济和财政策必须继续给予支持" 。

Governments, which for months resisted imposing fresh lockdowns, were forced to take dramatic action in recent weeks and impose strict curbs on hospitality, retail and travel. They're pumping in more aid to help businesses get through the disruptions, but the risk that things might get even worse is still large.

几个月来,各国政府一直拒绝实施新的封锁,但最近几周,它们被迫采取戏剧性行动,严格限制招待、零售和旅行。他们正在投入更多援助,帮助企业渡过混乱局面,但情况可能会变得更糟的风险仍然很大。

The commission warned that the pandemic could leave "deeper scars" than forecast, "primarily from higher numbers of corporate bankruptcies and hysteresis effects on labor markets."

欧盟委员会警告称,这种大流行病可能会留下比预测“更深的伤痕” , “主要来自更多企业破产和对劳动力市场的歇斯底里效应” 。

It also warned that member states could follow "rather different growth trajectories" depending on the structure of their economies. Spain's is forecast to contract by more than 12% this year, the biggest hit in the currency bloc and more than previously anticipated. That compares with a euro-area average of -7.8%.

经社会还警告说,成员国可根据其经济结构遵循"相当不同的增长轨迹" 。西班牙今年预计将收缩逾12% ,这是该货币集团遭受的最大冲击,也超过了此前的预期。相比之下,欧元区的平均水平为- 7.8% 。

The commission also sees a double digit contraction in the U.K. The forecasts for the first time assume that negotiations on a post-Brexit trade accord will yield no result.

委员会还看到联合王国出现两位数的收缩。这些预测首次假定,英国退欧后贸易协定的谈判不会产生任何结果。

Job losses in the euro area have so far been contained by government measures including furlough programs, but the commission said unemployment will probably rise to 9.4% next year as emergency support is phased out.

欧元区的失业到目前为止一直受到政府措施(包括休假计划)的控制,但欧盟委员会表示,随着紧急援助的逐步取消,明年的失业率很可能会上升到9.4% 。

Due to unprecedented fiscal support, government debt in the currency bloc will jump to more than 100% of economic output this year and remain above this threshold through 2022, according to the forecast. Greece's debt load will rise to an eye-watering 207%.

根据预测,由于前所未有的财政支持,欧元区政府债务今年将跃升至经济产出的100%以上,到2022年将保持在这一门槛之上。希腊的债务负担将上升到令人眼花缭乱的207% 。

Amid the ongoing damage to the economy, businesses and livelihoods, the European Central Bank is preparing a new set of stimulus measures. Even before the latest spike, inflation was forecast to rise to just 1.3% in 2022, far below the institution's goal of just under 2%.

在经济、企业和生计不断受到损害的情况下,欧洲中央银行正在制定一套新的刺激措施。即使在最近的飙升之前,预计2022年通胀将上升至1.3% ,远低于该机构略低于2%的目标。

The ECB will have its own new forecasts at its policy meeting in December, and Vice President Luis de Guindos said Thursday they're unlikely to differ much from the commission projections. He added that the evolution of the pandemic continues to be a source of uncertainty.

欧洲央行将在12月的政策会议上做出自己的新预测,美国副总统路易斯•德金多斯(Luis de Guindos)周四表示,这些预测不太可能与欧盟委员会的预测有太大差异。他补充说,这一流行病的演变仍然是一个不确定因素。

Diplomats and lawmakers in Brussels are meanwhile still squabbling over the details of a historic joint fiscal response to the EU's deepest slump on record.

与此同时,布鲁塞尔的外交官和议员们仍在争论对欧盟有史以来最严重的衰退做出历史性联合财政反应的细节。

The ECB has pushed officials to agree on the plan without any delay. It said that the latest lockdowns will require new fiscal support to sustain demand and help out those who are directly affected by the closures in the affected business sectors.

欧洲央行已敦促官员毫不拖延地就该计划达成一致。它说,最近的封锁将需要新的财政支持,以维持需求,并帮助受影响商业部门关闭直接影响的人。

(Updates with ECB's Guindos in 11th paragraph.)

(第11段更新了欧洲中央银行的Guindos)

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com

欲了解更多此类文章,请访问bloomberg . com 。

Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.

现在请订阅最值得信赖的商业新闻来源。

2020 Bloomberg L.P.

2020 Bloomberg L . P .