普通感冒和流感并不是导致Covid-19病例增加的原因
Ordinary colds and flu aren’t the reason for rising Covid-19 cases

Ordinary colds and flu aren’t the reason for rising Covid-19 cases

普通感冒和流感并不是导致Covid-19病例增加的原因

"这不是C19即将到来的第二次战争。这是NORMAL COLD / FLU SEASON 。与去年相同" 。

脸书帖子, 2020年9月1日

Facebook上的一篇文章称, Covid - 19感染的“第二波”还没有到来。该职位的提交人似乎住在佛罗里达州,但这一职位也是在联合王国共享的。

我们无法核实预测,因为未来是未知的。佛罗里达州、美国和英国对这一职位的解释也可能有所不同,美国和英国的疫情在不同时期有所上升和减少。(佛罗里达州的病例自7月达到峰值以来普遍呈下降趋势,而整个美国的病例在最近几周再次上升。)

然而,我们可以说,自9月1日以来,联合王国的Covid - 19感染病例有所增加。

我们知道这一点,因为我们每天都看到更多的检测呈阳性,无论是站出来接受检测的人还是随机接受检测的人。我们还可以看到, 9月份,在通过阳性检测后入院的人数也有所增加。

很难说这是否构成"第二波" ,因为这一短语没有明确的定义。另外,由于人们的行为发生了变化(法律或选择),或由于其他一些原因,每天感染的人数现在可能增加得较慢,或开始下降。但是, 9月份的每日感染人数确实大幅增加。

这只是一个正常的感冒季节吗?

一些感染Covid - 19的人患有咳嗽或高温,这与一些感冒或流感症状相似。感冒和流感感染的数量也可能增加,这在今年较冷的地区很常见。这意味着,如果你只看症状,就很难判断是否有更多的人患有Covid - 19或其他呼吸道疾病。

但最近病例的增加是基于阳性检测,而不仅仅是症状,如果有人对Covid - 19检测呈阳性,他们很有可能自己患有这种疾病。

我们以前曾核查过一个错误的说法,即对Covid - 19的检测无法判断SARS - CoV - 2(引起Covid - 19的病毒)与造成共同感冒的其他一些常见类型的冠状病毒之间的区别。联合王国大多数试验都使用了PCR测试,但情况并非如此。它们是SARS - CoV - 2所特有的,不会回复许多虚假的正面说法。

此外,联合王国最近记录的类似流感的疾病水平相对较低。

总之,有非常有力的证据表明,目前Covid - 19病例的增加是真实的,而不仅仅是反映正常的感冒和流感季节。

"It's NOT a SECOND WAVE of C19 coming soon. It's the NORMAL COLD / FLU SEASON. Same as last year."

Facebook post, 1 September 2020

A post on Facebook says that there is not an approaching "second wave" of Covid-19 infections. The author of the post appears to be based in Florida, but the post is also being shared in the UK.

We cannot fact check a prediction, because the future is unknown. This post might also be interpreted differently in Florida, the US and the UK, where the epidemic has risen and fallen at different times. (In Florida, cases have generally been declining since a peak in July, while in the US as a whole, cases have been rising again in recent weeks.)

However, we can say that there has been a rise in the number of Covid-19 infections in the UK since 1 September.

We know this because we've seen more positive tests per day, both among people who came forward to be tested and people tested at random. We can also see that the number of hospital admissions after a positive test rose in September too.

It's hard to say whether this amounts to a "second wave", because this phrase is not clearly defined. It is also possible that the number of daily infections may now rise more slowly, or start to fall, either because there's been a change in people's behaviour (by law or by choice) or for some other reason. But the number of daily infections did rise substantially in September.

Is this just a normal cold and flu season?

Some people infected with Covid-19 experience a cough or a high temperature, which are similar to some cold or flu symptoms. There may also be a rise in the number of colds and flu infections, which is common in the colder part of the year. This means that if you were just looking at symptoms, it could be harder to tell whether more people were getting Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases.

But the rise in recent cases is based on positive tests, not just symptoms, and if someone tests positive for Covid-19 then they are very likely to have the disease itself.

We've previously fact checked a false claim that tests for Covid-19 can't tell the difference between SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) and some other common types of coronavirus that cause the common cold. This is not true of the PCR tests that are used for most testing in the UK. They are specific to SARS-CoV-2 and will not return many false positives.

In addition, the most recently recorded level of influenza-like illnesses in the UK is relatively low.

Altogether there is very strong evidence that the current rise in Covid-19 cases is real, rather than simply reflecting the normal cold and flu season.

"It's NOT a SECOND WAVE of C19 coming soon. It's the NORMAL COLD / FLU SEASON. Same as last year."

"这不是C19即将到来的第二次战争。这是NORMAL COLD / FLU SEASON 。与去年相同" 。

Facebook post, 1 September 2020

脸书帖子, 2020年9月1日

A post on Facebook says that there is not an approaching "second wave" of Covid-19 infections. The author of the post appears to be based in Florida, but the post is also being shared in the UK.

Facebook上的一篇文章称, Covid - 19感染的“第二波”还没有到来。该职位的提交人似乎住在佛罗里达州,但这一职位也是在联合王国共享的。

We cannot fact check a prediction, because the future is unknown. This post might also be interpreted differently in Florida, the US and the UK, where the epidemic has risen and fallen at different times. (In Florida, cases have generally been declining since a peak in July, while in the US as a whole, cases have been rising again in recent weeks.)

我们无法核实预测,因为未来是未知的。佛罗里达州、美国和英国对这一职位的解释也可能有所不同,美国和英国的疫情在不同时期有所上升和减少。(佛罗里达州的病例自7月达到峰值以来普遍呈下降趋势,而整个美国的病例在最近几周再次上升。)

However, we can say that there has been a rise in the number of Covid-19 infections in the UK since 1 September.

然而,我们可以说,自9月1日以来,联合王国的Covid - 19感染病例有所增加。

We know this because we've seen more positive tests per day, both among people who came forward to be tested and people tested at random. We can also see that the number of hospital admissions after a positive test rose in September too.

我们知道这一点,因为我们每天都看到更多的检测呈阳性,无论是站出来接受检测的人还是随机接受检测的人。我们还可以看到, 9月份,在通过阳性检测后入院的人数也有所增加。

It's hard to say whether this amounts to a "second wave", because this phrase is not clearly defined. It is also possible that the number of daily infections may now rise more slowly, or start to fall, either because there's been a change in people's behaviour (by law or by choice) or for some other reason. But the number of daily infections did rise substantially in September.

很难说这是否构成"第二波" ,因为这一短语没有明确的定义。另外,由于人们的行为发生了变化(法律或选择),或由于其他一些原因,每天感染的人数现在可能增加得较慢,或开始下降。但是, 9月份的每日感染人数确实大幅增加。

Is this just a normal cold and flu season?

这只是一个正常的感冒季节吗?

Some people infected with Covid-19 experience a cough or a high temperature, which are similar to some cold or flu symptoms. There may also be a rise in the number of colds and flu infections, which is common in the colder part of the year. This means that if you were just looking at symptoms, it could be harder to tell whether more people were getting Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases.

一些感染Covid - 19的人患有咳嗽或高温,这与一些感冒或流感症状相似。感冒和流感感染的数量也可能增加,这在今年较冷的地区很常见。这意味着,如果你只看症状,就很难判断是否有更多的人患有Covid - 19或其他呼吸道疾病。

But the rise in recent cases is based on positive tests, not just symptoms, and if someone tests positive for Covid-19 then they are very likely to have the disease itself.

但最近病例的增加是基于阳性检测,而不仅仅是症状,如果有人对Covid - 19检测呈阳性,他们很有可能自己患有这种疾病。

We've previously fact checked a false claim that tests for Covid-19 can't tell the difference between SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) and some other common types of coronavirus that cause the common cold. This is not true of the PCR tests that are used for most testing in the UK. They are specific to SARS-CoV-2 and will not return many false positives.

我们以前曾核查过一个错误的说法,即对Covid - 19的检测无法判断SARS - CoV - 2(引起Covid - 19的病毒)与造成共同感冒的其他一些常见类型的冠状病毒之间的区别。联合王国大多数试验都使用了PCR测试,但情况并非如此。它们是SARS - CoV - 2所特有的,不会回复许多虚假的正面说法。

In addition, the most recently recorded level of influenza-like illnesses in the UK is relatively low.

此外,联合王国最近记录的类似流感的疾病水平相对较低。

Altogether there is very strong evidence that the current rise in Covid-19 cases is real, rather than simply reflecting the normal cold and flu season.

总之,有非常有力的证据表明,目前Covid - 19病例的增加是真实的,而不仅仅是反映正常的感冒和流感季节。