前进保险的议程已经一纸空文
The Progressive Agenda Is Dead

The Progressive Agenda Is Dead

前进保险的议程已经一纸空文

民主党人赌的是,如果他们选择了最不冒犯、最强硬的体制主义者,领导一个可以说“我看起来像是个社会主义吗? ”的人,并让美国同意,不,乔·拜登(Joe Biden)看起来不像一个他们可以利用的人,让特朗普总统不仅赢得总统宝座,还赢得参议院宝座。与此同时,他们假定他们将在众议院的多数基础上取得压倒性的主导地位。

民主党人的理解是,在表面上,民主党人几乎是一样的。一旦安装了一个"无害的温和派" ,激进分子就会出来为其辩护。特洛扬·乔(Trojan Joe)被选中告诉选民,他不支持绿色新政(Green New Deal),尽管他的平台明确表示,他基本上支持绿色新政。他应该告诉选民,恢复“体面”是选举的主要目的,尽管他的支持者试图通过摧毁拖延战术、把最高法院打包、让各州离开波多黎各和特区来改写政治规则手册。他不希望全民医保(Medicare for All)能立即摧毁私营保险业;他只是在寻求一种“公共选择” ,这种选择会逐渐实现。每当他把一句简单的句子搅拌起来,或者在上午9点退休,活动派民主党人都会唇枪舌剑,说他可能会被美国参议院最自由的成员取代,这个有色人种女性在几次无党派调查中,甚至在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)中都排在左边。就在拜登获得党内提名的同时,这个国家也被这一大流行病所困扰,它的灾难性后果让他可以指责特朗普管理不善,尽管他所在的政党对中国的污名化和我们加强边境抵御病毒的厌恶,可能会让事情变得更糟。

选民们看到了所有这一切。如果说选民似乎给拜登带来了微弱的胜利,那么他们做了两件事:承认特朗普总统的个性和风格上的缺陷,同时坚决反对现在应该执行特朗普政策相反的观点。除非民主党人能在定于1月5日举行的竞选中夺取乔治亚州的两个参议院席位,否则拜登将成为一名没有音乐家的强盗,一名没有建筑商的建筑师。美国将选择把特朗普总统赶下台,同时要求美国继续保持目前的路线,就像她所说的那样:不要重新考虑能源行业、医疗保健、资本主义、打击不平等的大规模新计划,也不要对那些在财政上大张旗鼓的蓝色州进行联邦救助。民主党人将被赋予总统职位,并被警告不要做任何事情。

这不应该让我们吃惊。无论从人口统计学角度还是从其他角度来看,美国的大都市的确会随着时间的推移而变化,但变化并不大。自从半个世纪前林登·约翰逊(Lyndon Johnson)的总统任期遭到灾难性的自我毁灭以来,这个国家只有一次,或者可以说有两次投票赞成大幅左转。奥巴马政府和克林顿政府都是在感受到经济危机的情况下诞生的,但在每一个情况下,随着经济的独立复苏,美国人立即拒绝了总统的机会主义政策,并让共和党国会停止了他的议程。随着纽特·金里奇(Newt Gingrich)掌权,克林顿被降格为“大政府时代已经结束” 。奥巴马在总统任期的最后四分之三时间里,一直在抱怨共和党的阻挠行为,并使用他引以为豪的笔和手机。事实证明,这更像是Etch - a - Sketch 。特朗普动摇了奥巴马的总统任期,并在很大程度上抹去了它。

如果拜登获胜,他将是32年来首位没有参议院支持他的候任总统(除非民主党在乔治亚州取得如此惊人的成就,在这种情况下,该党将只获得包括副总统在内的5150人最可能获得的多数票)。民主党似乎会紧抓住众议院(House of Representatives)的一条主线,众议院的温和派成员敏锐地意识到,在下一个中期选举中,赢得总统宝座的民主党几乎总是会遭受巨大损失,他们一直在愤怒地谴责该党的激进派系拖垮了总统宝座。

获胜的拜登将被置于一个基本上是礼仪性的总统的羞辱地位。这对他来说很好。他从来没有勇气为许多事情而斗争。他一直希望仅是受欢迎,而不是特别推动任何事情。事实上,在过去半个世纪里,华盛顿最臭名昭著的臃肿将被要求做他最擅长做的事情,做更多的事情。我们都可以期待着像特拉华州这样强大的主席。

更多来自国家审查

The Democrats gambled that if they chose the least offensive, most avuncular establishmentarian to lead them a guy who could say "Do I look like a socialist?" and get America to concur that, no, Joe Biden did not look like one they could leverage dislike for President Trump to win not only the presidency but the Senate. Meanwhile, they assumed they would build on their majority in the House to achieve overwhelming dominance.

What the Democrats understood is that Democrats are pretty much all the same under the surface. Once a "harmless moderate" was installed, the radicals would come out and boogie. Trojan Joe was selected to tell the voters he didn't support the Green New Deal, even as his platform clarified that he essentially did. He was supposed to tell the voters that restoring "decency" was what the election was mainly about, even as his backers schemed to rewrite the political rulebook by destroying the filibuster, packing the Supreme Court, and making states out of Puerto Rico and D.C. He didn't want Medicare for All, which would destroy the private insurance industry immediately; he merely sought a "public option," which would do so gradually. And every time he futzed up a simple sentence or retired for the day at 9 a.m., activist Democrats licked their lips at the prospect of replacing him with the single most liberal member of the United States Senate, a woman of color whom several nonpartisan surveys ranked to the left of even Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Just as Biden secured the party nomination, the country was gripped by the pandemic, whose catastrophic effects allowed him to blame Trump for mismanagement, even though his own party's disgust for the stigmatization of China and the hardening of our borders against the virus probably would have made matters worse.

The voters saw through all of this. If, as appears likely, voters have given Biden a narrow win, they have done two things: acknowledge President Trump's personality and stylistic flaws while resoundingly rejecting the idea that it was time to implement the opposite of Trumpian policies. Unless the Democrats can grab both Senate seats in Georgia in runoffs scheduled for January 5, Biden would be a bandleader without musicians, an architect without builders. The country will have chosen to remove President Trump while asking that America otherwise continue on its present course, steady as she goes: no rethink of the energy industry, of health care, of capitalism, no vast new scheme to combat inequality, no federal bailout of the fiscally profligate blue states. The Democrats will have been given the presidency and warned not to do anything much with it.

This shouldn't surprise us. The American polis does change over time, demographically and otherwise, but it doesn't change much. Since the disastrous self-destruction of Lyndon Johnson's presidency half a century ago, only once or, arguably, twice has the country voted to take a vigorous left turn. Both the Obama and Clinton administrations were born out of perceived economic crises, but in each case, as the economy recovered on its own, Americans immediately rejected the president's opportunistic policies and brought in a Republican Congress to halt his agenda. Clinton was reduced to declaring "the era of big government is over" as Newt Gingrich seized the upper hand. Obama spent the last three-quarters of his presidency grousing about Republican obstructionism and using his vaunted pen and phone. These turned out to be more like an Etch-a-Sketch. Trump shook up the Obama presidency and largely erased it.

If he wins, Biden would be the first incoming president in 32 years to not have the Senate backing him (unless the Democratic Party should pull off that astounding feat in Georgia, in which case it would enjoy only the barest possible majority of 5150, including the vice president). It appears that the Democrats will cling to power by a thread in the House of Representatives, whose moderate members are keenly aware that the party winning the presidency almost invariably suffers huge losses in the next midterm and who have been angrily denouncing the party's radical wing for dragging them down.

A victorious Biden would be placed in the humiliating position of a largely ceremonial president. Which works out fine for him. He has never had the courage to fight for much of anything. He always wanted merely to be popular, not to push for anything in particular. The most notorious blowhard of the last half century in Washington would in fact be called upon to do what he does best talk, talk, and talk some more. We could all look forward to a presidency as mighty as Delaware.

More from National Review

The Democrats gambled that if they chose the least offensive, most avuncular establishmentarian to lead them a guy who could say "Do I look like a socialist?" and get America to concur that, no, Joe Biden did not look like one they could leverage dislike for President Trump to win not only the presidency but the Senate. Meanwhile, they assumed they would build on their majority in the House to achieve overwhelming dominance.

民主党人赌的是,如果他们选择了最不冒犯、最强硬的体制主义者,领导一个可以说“我看起来像是个社会主义吗? ”的人,并让美国同意,不,乔·拜登(Joe Biden)看起来不像一个他们可以利用的人,让特朗普总统不仅赢得总统宝座,还赢得参议院宝座。与此同时,他们假定他们将在众议院的多数基础上取得压倒性的主导地位。

What the Democrats understood is that Democrats are pretty much all the same under the surface. Once a "harmless moderate" was installed, the radicals would come out and boogie. Trojan Joe was selected to tell the voters he didn't support the Green New Deal, even as his platform clarified that he essentially did. He was supposed to tell the voters that restoring "decency" was what the election was mainly about, even as his backers schemed to rewrite the political rulebook by destroying the filibuster, packing the Supreme Court, and making states out of Puerto Rico and D.C. He didn't want Medicare for All, which would destroy the private insurance industry immediately; he merely sought a "public option," which would do so gradually. And every time he futzed up a simple sentence or retired for the day at 9 a.m., activist Democrats licked their lips at the prospect of replacing him with the single most liberal member of the United States Senate, a woman of color whom several nonpartisan surveys ranked to the left of even Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Just as Biden secured the party nomination, the country was gripped by the pandemic, whose catastrophic effects allowed him to blame Trump for mismanagement, even though his own party's disgust for the stigmatization of China and the hardening of our borders against the virus probably would have made matters worse.

民主党人的理解是,在表面上,民主党人几乎是一样的。一旦安装了一个"无害的温和派" ,激进分子就会出来为其辩护。特洛扬·乔(Trojan Joe)被选中告诉选民,他不支持绿色新政(Green New Deal),尽管他的平台明确表示,他基本上支持绿色新政。他应该告诉选民,恢复“体面”是选举的主要目的,尽管他的支持者试图通过摧毁拖延战术、把最高法院打包、让各州离开波多黎各和特区来改写政治规则手册。他不希望全民医保(Medicare for All)能立即摧毁私营保险业;他只是在寻求一种“公共选择” ,这种选择会逐渐实现。每当他把一句简单的句子搅拌起来,或者在上午9点退休,活动派民主党人都会唇枪舌剑,说他可能会被美国参议院最自由的成员取代,这个有色人种女性在几次无党派调查中,甚至在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)中都排在左边。就在拜登获得党内提名的同时,这个国家也被这一大流行病所困扰,它的灾难性后果让他可以指责特朗普管理不善,尽管他所在的政党对中国的污名化和我们加强边境抵御病毒的厌恶,可能会让事情变得更糟。

The voters saw through all of this. If, as appears likely, voters have given Biden a narrow win, they have done two things: acknowledge President Trump's personality and stylistic flaws while resoundingly rejecting the idea that it was time to implement the opposite of Trumpian policies. Unless the Democrats can grab both Senate seats in Georgia in runoffs scheduled for January 5, Biden would be a bandleader without musicians, an architect without builders. The country will have chosen to remove President Trump while asking that America otherwise continue on its present course, steady as she goes: no rethink of the energy industry, of health care, of capitalism, no vast new scheme to combat inequality, no federal bailout of the fiscally profligate blue states. The Democrats will have been given the presidency and warned not to do anything much with it.

选民们看到了所有这一切。如果说选民似乎给拜登带来了微弱的胜利,那么他们做了两件事:承认特朗普总统的个性和风格上的缺陷,同时坚决反对现在应该执行特朗普政策相反的观点。除非民主党人能在定于1月5日举行的竞选中夺取乔治亚州的两个参议院席位,否则拜登将成为一名没有音乐家的强盗,一名没有建筑商的建筑师。美国将选择把特朗普总统赶下台,同时要求美国继续保持目前的路线,就像她所说的那样:不要重新考虑能源行业、医疗保健、资本主义、打击不平等的大规模新计划,也不要对那些在财政上大张旗鼓的蓝色州进行联邦救助。民主党人将被赋予总统职位,并被警告不要做任何事情。

This shouldn't surprise us. The American polis does change over time, demographically and otherwise, but it doesn't change much. Since the disastrous self-destruction of Lyndon Johnson's presidency half a century ago, only once or, arguably, twice has the country voted to take a vigorous left turn. Both the Obama and Clinton administrations were born out of perceived economic crises, but in each case, as the economy recovered on its own, Americans immediately rejected the president's opportunistic policies and brought in a Republican Congress to halt his agenda. Clinton was reduced to declaring "the era of big government is over" as Newt Gingrich seized the upper hand. Obama spent the last three-quarters of his presidency grousing about Republican obstructionism and using his vaunted pen and phone. These turned out to be more like an Etch-a-Sketch. Trump shook up the Obama presidency and largely erased it.

这不应该让我们吃惊。无论从人口统计学角度还是从其他角度来看,美国的大都市的确会随着时间的推移而变化,但变化并不大。自从半个世纪前林登·约翰逊(Lyndon Johnson)的总统任期遭到灾难性的自我毁灭以来,这个国家只有一次,或者可以说有两次投票赞成大幅左转。奥巴马政府和克林顿政府都是在感受到经济危机的情况下诞生的,但在每一个情况下,随着经济的独立复苏,美国人立即拒绝了总统的机会主义政策,并让共和党国会停止了他的议程。随着纽特·金里奇(Newt Gingrich)掌权,克林顿被降格为“大政府时代已经结束” 。奥巴马在总统任期的最后四分之三时间里,一直在抱怨共和党的阻挠行为,并使用他引以为豪的笔和手机。事实证明,这更像是Etch - a - Sketch 。特朗普动摇了奥巴马的总统任期,并在很大程度上抹去了它。

If he wins, Biden would be the first incoming president in 32 years to not have the Senate backing him (unless the Democratic Party should pull off that astounding feat in Georgia, in which case it would enjoy only the barest possible majority of 5150, including the vice president). It appears that the Democrats will cling to power by a thread in the House of Representatives, whose moderate members are keenly aware that the party winning the presidency almost invariably suffers huge losses in the next midterm and who have been angrily denouncing the party's radical wing for dragging them down.

如果拜登获胜,他将是32年来首位没有参议院支持他的候任总统(除非民主党在乔治亚州取得如此惊人的成就,在这种情况下,该党将只获得包括副总统在内的5150人最可能获得的多数票)。民主党似乎会紧抓住众议院(House of Representatives)的一条主线,众议院的温和派成员敏锐地意识到,在下一个中期选举中,赢得总统宝座的民主党几乎总是会遭受巨大损失,他们一直在愤怒地谴责该党的激进派系拖垮了总统宝座。

A victorious Biden would be placed in the humiliating position of a largely ceremonial president. Which works out fine for him. He has never had the courage to fight for much of anything. He always wanted merely to be popular, not to push for anything in particular. The most notorious blowhard of the last half century in Washington would in fact be called upon to do what he does best talk, talk, and talk some more. We could all look forward to a presidency as mighty as Delaware.

获胜的拜登将被置于一个基本上是礼仪性的总统的羞辱地位。这对他来说很好。他从来没有勇气为许多事情而斗争。他一直希望仅是受欢迎,而不是特别推动任何事情。事实上,在过去半个世纪里,华盛顿最臭名昭著的臃肿将被要求做他最擅长做的事情,做更多的事情。我们都可以期待着像特拉华州这样强大的主席。

More from National Review

更多来自国家审查